ADAPTABILITY OF KYRGYZSTAN’S PASTORAL SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM by

The location of Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn province within the Tian Shan Mountains of Central Asia makes the country especially sensitive to the effects of global climate change. It is a poor region where over 70 percent of rural residents support themselves through small-scale agriculture and animal herding, activities that depend on ecosystem services including natural grassland productivity and melt-water runoff. While much of the literature on adaptation to climate change has focused on preventing disturbances or reducing their magnitude, this study focuses on “adaptability,” or the properties of the rural Kyrgyzstani social-ecological system that could aid in recovery following a major disturbance. In 2010 I interviewed 65 residents of Karasuu, a rural herding community, on issues related to access to sources of information, perceptions of the environment and levels of financial and social capital. Furthermore, I conducted an analysis of Landsat-derived NDVI to assess pasture degradation over the past decade. I found that social capital, financial capital and the ability to exercise mobility in herding practices are linked variables, and low levels in one reinforce low levels in the others. This relationship also has implications for ecosystem services, as less-mobile herders are more likely to overexploit nearby pastures. Another finding relates to the acquisition of new ecological knowledge. Residents were much more willing to seek out new information during times of crisis, suggesting that for external state or NGO actors, the early recovery period might offer the best opportunity to influence local practices. Recent World Bank development projects in rural Kyrgyzstan are also reviewed in this study in order assess they ways that their stated goals create or inhibit local adaptability. One finding is that there is a large emphasis on agricultural intensification in many projects, an objective that could limit other future adaptive options among local communities.